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Crude oil tumbled again on Thursday as lockdowns in Europe clouded the demand outlook while stocks were in and out of losses globally, hinging on support from Wall Street. French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel have ordered their countries back into coronavirus lockdowns, while cases are rising in 47 U.S. states with patients overwhelming hospitals in parts of the country.
The European Central Bank said it would increase its support for the bloc’s economy amid the pandemic even as it left policy unchanged, weighing on the euro, while U.S. gross domestic product soared to a widely-predicted record bounce that helped trigger stock buying on Wall Street, enough to halt the rout on equities globally so far this week. The S&P 500 rose but was still down nearly 5% for the week so far as traders have shied away from risk on concern a new wave of COVID-19 infections will hinder the economic recovery.
“GDP hit it out of the park, as expected,” said Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investment product at E*TRADE Financial. “But it remains to be seen if that can provide any catalyst given that it’s not really capturing the slowdown we’ve seen in the past few weeks and we’re coming off of a dismal Q2 read.”
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 17.44 points, or 0.07%, to 26,537.39, the S&P 500 gained 21.17 points, or 0.65%, to 3,292.2 and the Nasdaq Composite added 128.28 points, or 1.17%, to 11,133.15. Global stock markets lost nearly $2 trillion on Wednesday, with trading volume on U.S. exchanges up 35% to the highest level in over five weeks.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index lost 0.03% and MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe gained 0.14%. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.4% overnight and futures were pointing higher, while Chinese blue chips rose 0.7%.
“Asia is not really partaking in this second or third wave story because it’s got its COVID largely under control,” said Rob Carnell, chief economist in Asia at ING. Taiwan, which boasts Asia’s best-performing currency this year, marked its 200th straight day without a local coronavirus transmission on Thursday.
Emerging market stocks lost 0.31%. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan closed 0.45% lower. Concerns hit commodities too, with oil again falling and down nearly 10% for the week.
“As lockdowns begin to bite on demand concerns across Europe, the near-term outlook for crude starts to deteriorate,” said Stephen Innes, chief global market strategist at Axi. U.S. crude recently fell 4.15% to $35.84 per barrel and Brent was at $37.44, down 4.29% on the day.
Uncertainty about Tuesday’s U.S. election also kept traders on edge. President Donald Trump and Democratic rival Joe Biden will rally supporters in the battleground of Florida, visiting the same city hours apart to offer their contrasting approaches to the resurgent coronavirus pandemic. The ECB held off on new measures on Thursday but it hinted at action in December, which is likely to keep the euro under pressure.
The dollar index rose 0.653%, with the euro down 0.72% to $1.1659. The Japanese yen weakened 0.31% versus the greenback at 104.64 per dollar, while Sterling was last trading at $1.2903, down 0.60% on the day.
The Bank of Japan had made no changes to monetary policy settings overnight, as expected, though it trimmed its growth forecasts to reflect sluggish services spending. Treasury yields rose, tracking U.S. stocks, despite little initial reaction to the strong GDP number.
Benchmark 10-year notes last fell 9/32 in price to yield 0.8112%, from 0.781% late on Wednesday. Spot gold dropped 0.3% to $1,870.88 an ounce. Silver fell 0.29% to $23.34.
DD